Description Predictive profiling

1 description

1.1 adversarial methods of operation (amo)
1.2 suspicion indicators
1.3 threat vs. risk
1.4 detect - determine - deploy
1.5 use of technology in profiling

description

predictive profiling offers unique approach threat mitigation begins point of view of aggressor/adversary , based on actual adversary s methods of operation, modus operandi. method applicable securing virtually environment , meeting set of security requirements.

in predictive profiling, 1 uses operational profile (not racial or statistical profile) of terrorist or criminal basis identifying suspicion indicators in protected environment. when predictively profiling situation, person or object 1 identifies suspicion indicators correlate adversary s method of operation. example, if security officer observes person walking empty suitcase in airport (the suitcase appears light; bounces off floor) may identify suspicious behavior indication of possible terrorist or criminal method of operation because:

the person may involved in theft or shop lifting (using empty suitcase stash steal)
the person may involved in surveillance activities (the suitcase prop fit airport environment)
the person has dropped bomb somewhere in airport , exiting

predictive profiling differs racial profiling uses race , ethnicity factors against evaluate potential threat. in fact, proponents of predictive profiling dismiss use of racial profiling ineffective in counter terrorism or security because focusing on 1 part of population tool identifying potential threat can illegal , can counterproductive.

indeed, terrorist or criminal can use security measures solely based on racial profiling against security system choosing identity , appearance not associated targeted race or ethnicity. once, on may 30, 1972, 3 members of japanese red army, on behalf of popular front liberation of palestine (pflp), attacked israeli airport (lod airport massacre). japanese attackers took advantage of fact @ time, israeli border security system geared towards focusing on arab , muslim populations potential terrorist threats.

predicting profiling proactive in nature, used prevent and/or mitigate threat before evolves attack or criminal event. putting resources emergency response of course prudent, preventing event occurring preferable both in terms of public safety , often, security costs.

adversarial methods of operation (amo)

predictive profiling uses method of attack , correlating suspicion indicators basis threat assessment. method of attack, pickpocket terrorist, remains constant , includes marking getaway stages:

marking of target
intelligence gathering
surveillance
planning
tooling up
rehearsing , training
execution , …
getaway

knowing method of attack or method of operation of terrorist or criminal, can more threat-oriented in protecting our environment. allows able identify situations, objects or people suspicious in context of method. predictive profiling referred conducting situational threat assessment.

suspicion indicators

suspicion indicators

a suspicion indicator indication based on known (or predicted) terrorist or criminal methods of operation or deviation typical profile may lead 1 believe observed situation (persons and/or objects) may have potential harming protected environment , inhabitants.

these indicators derived aspect relates broadly term behavior. include among other things attire, accent, affect, identity both reflected in individual s documentation , are, cover story .

because suspicion indicators correlate directly amos associated given protected environment, there no single definitive list. there infinite examples of suspicion indicators, , perhaps poignant associated testimony of u.s. airways agent michael tuohey, regards events of 9/11. tuohey, had worked airlines on 30 years, 18 of in portland, checked in mohamed atta , abdulaziz al-omari flying portland, me boston, ma. noticed following suspicion indicators in atta , al-omari’s actions , behavior on morning of 9/11:

the terrorists arrived check in 30 minutes before departure.
atta , omari meandering in checkin area although flight due depart in 30 minutes.
omari never responded verbally questions asked mr. touhey; shook head.
atta looking @ mr. touhey anger.
both terrorists carried full fare business class ticket.
the tickets both terrorists 1 way.

threat vs. risk

sometimes terms threat , risk used though synonymous. in fact these 2 ideas different, , difference reflected in predictive profiling methods.

risk measurable, has levels. example, car insurance premiums calculated based on measurable, past behaviors , events. threat, on other hand, not measurable. either exists, or doesn t. why homeland security alert systems many countries have adopted not meaningful.

following logic, goal of predictive profiling determine whether or not person, object or situation represents real threat. logic of predictive profiling continues insofar our security efforts confined real threats versus larger, random sampling of threats in form of people or objects. why, example, should waste time screening everyone, or random sampling of larger set, when rather focus our attention on suspicion indicators reflect actual, potential threat?

another way define threat suspicion has not been refuted.

detect - determine - deploy

the proactive security process employed using predictive profiling consists of 3 steps:

detect suspicion (technology or human)
determine method of operation (human)
deploy against amo (human)

predictive profiling relies heavily on human element in security. while detection can accomplished technology, determination or analysis required identify suspicion indicator , related amo trained human can do. general kind of analysis natural us; make similar determinations in our lives time. husband arrives home later usual , smelling of scent not familiar wife. observed suspicion indicators (tardy , unusual scent) , automatically seeks determine whether or not correlate amo (that cheating on her) asking probing questions (where have been?) decide if threat refutable (his story pans out).

use of technology in profiling

in security , homeland security management, strong emphasis placed on technology: cctv cameras, detection devices, scanners , like. , while technology has place, note there no known instances of terrorist being caught using detection technology alone. predictive profiling more concerned identifying intent weapon. trained , motivated criminal or terrorist capable of death , destruction using improvised weapons. individual potentially lethal weapon has peaceful intentions, not pose threat.